In a 12-week Fantasy Football season, every game counts. FF players don’t have the luxury of waiting a few weeks for their guys to get hot. It is even more crucial that top draft picks play to their value. A bust with your top pick could make or break your season. Week 3 is over, you’re 0-3 and it is time to come to grips with your busts and make alternative plans.
I wrote a blog a few weeks back looking at guys who should make you panic or not. At this point, you are running out of time and can’t wait much longer for your guys to get hot. But there are a few guys who may pay dividends with a little patience. I am going to go out on a limb here and try and talk you (and me) down off the ledge.
The only and I mean only luxury of going 0-3 or finishing in last place is the waiver wire pickup. You have the first or second shot of rebuilding your team with the hottest waiver wire selections available in your league. I have completely turned my season around by picking up guys like Derek Anderson a few years back and Mewelde Moore last season. I’ll talk waiver wire pickups later in the week.
So here we are going into Fantasy Football Week 4 and your top pick has given you nothing. Panic or don’t panic?
Don’t panic
Matt Forte - I saw Forte listed as high as number one overall in some pre season rankings. Forte has arguably been the biggest bust of all of the running backs. He hasn’t even reached 150 yards in three games combined. Chances are if you own Forte, you passed on some great backs and are probably getting smoked right about now. Don’t panic!
This guy is just too good to be held back. He faced some great defenses the first few weeks. Jay Cutler has put the team in some really bad positions, thus eliminating the run. The Bears are built to be a running team. Once it starts to get colder, the Bears will be running a heck of a lot more. Not too mention, Forte has some tremendous matchups coming up. As a matter of a fact, Forte will only play two good rushing defenses in the next eight weeks.
I like Forte. I also think that over time he is going to be a top back in fantasy football. It is too early to get off his bandwagon and give him up in a trade. He plays Detroit and Atlanta in the next three weeks with a bye in between. If Forte is still putting up these kinds of numbers a month from now, something is wrong. Otherwise, you need to ride this out and hope the Bears rushing attack get their act together.
Steve Slaton - I am sticking by my top pick. I think his slow start came down to scheduling. Slaton played the Titans and the Jets in the first two weeks. The real Slaton began to emerge last week against Jacksonville. Now that Kevin Walter back, defenses will play the pass more and leave Slaton open. Slaton had 76 yards against the Jags and got better as the game went on.
A huge boost to Slaton owners was the fumble at the 1-yard line from Chris Brown. Brown has been the goal line back, taking the scoring situations away from Slaton. Davis fumbled in the fourth quarter and basically cost the Texans the game. There is a great chance that the team loses confidence in Davis and starts giving Slaton some goal line carries. Additionally, Slaton has some great matchups coming up against Oakland, Cincinnati, and Arizona.
Larry Fitzgerald - Like Forte, Fitzgerald was ranked overall number one in some pre season rankings. By normal receiver standards, Fitzgerald has been doing okay. By Fitzgerald receiving standards, he is awful. Chances are that you bypassed a great running back or Drew Brees to draft Fitzgerald. Those kinds of numbers aren’t going to cut it unless you have Adrian Peterson in your lineup.
There are a few reasons I still have faith in Fitzgerald. For one, he is young and just way too good to be held back. A big reason for his decline is his quarterback (just ask his brother). Warner is banged up bad and at 38-years old, it is very conceivable that he just doesn’t have it anymore. The Cards are going to make the change at some point. I don’t like Matt Leinart at all, but he is healthy and loved Fitzgerald. If the Cards are slow on pulling the switch, it may be a long season for you Fitzgerald owners.
He also has some great matchups coming up. Fitzgerald has Houston in three weeks which give up points to everyone. If he doesn’t breakout in this game, I don’t think he ever will. He also has Seattle, the Giants, and Panthers who all give up lots of points to receivers. Stand by your man and you should be fine.
Panic
Kurt Warner – What a difference a year can make. I drafted Warner in the 17th round last year and reaped the rewards. This year, Warner was ranked second behind Drew Brees in some drafts. Between losing the Super Bowl, his age, and coming into the season with injuries, this guy had bust written all over him.
The problem is that if you took Warner, you were counting on him to be your starter. He looked slow and gimpy against the Colts. Yes, he put up 17 points but his future as the Cardinals starter is questionable. You can just look at Warner and see that he doesn’t have the same confidence as last year. When your quarterback has lost it is time for you to lose confidence in him as well. Stick a fork in him, he’s done!
Terrell Owens - It looks like Fantasy Football owners have a T.O. problem. The problem is that you probably took him with your first receiver pick. T.O. didn’t even have a catch in his last game. I couldn’t have picked a worst offense for Owens than the Bills if I tried. You may get a 100-yard game once or twice, but the days of Owens’ Philly and Dallas numbers are over.
The problem isn’t just Trent Edwards, who does stink. Owens is older and isn’t getting off the break like he used to. After watching numerous videos on him, he just looks slower and not nearly as explosive. Owens would always get the YAC numbers or the Yards After Catch numbers. That is where Owens made his bread and butter. He isn’t going to get any YAC numbers without any catches. It is time to trade him, bench him, or put him on waivers altogether.
LaDainian Tomlinson - I wrote a lengthy piece about L.T. last week. This guy is a fantasy football killer. He was ranked in the top five of just about every fantasy football pre season cheat sheet. This means you passed up Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, and Drew Brees to get him. L.T. has bitten you the worst way possible, he hasn’t even played.
We were all fooled. From the experts to regular everyday players, we all bought into L.T.’s promises when he said he was back. Let this be a lesson. No matter what the hype is, don’t ever take a running back 30-years old or older with your first pick. Even when L.T. comes back, chances are he will be splitting time with Darren Sproles. I do think L.T. will still give you some big days. However, they won’t be what you expected when you drafted him. If you can find another sucker out there to buy in on the hype, trade him. Even Ricky Williams or Fred Taylor will give you more production week to week than Tomlinson at this point.
Not all is lost if you own L.T., Warner, or Owens. Make a trade. You may find someone out there who still believes the same hype you did when you drafted them. As for Forte, Slaton, and Fitzgerald, take a shot and try and trade for them if you don’t own them. You may be surprised. Someone may panic and pull the trigger. Now is a great time to make a trade on someone who is under producing. As long as they are under 30, you will be okay.
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Here are the latest news and notes to help you decide your Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 4. Check out all of the latest injury news from around the league that will impact your Fantasy Football Week 4!
